"sp500"
Bounce and RetraceLong SP500 and other instruments to see a bounce from current levels after today's price action. Longer term, there could be problems and we could see further moves below 1800.
S&P500 - MONTHLY FORECASTHello Traders!
The very interesting situation in the S&P500 index (ES). Suppose, that the market can take a form of Horizontal Triangle (EWA/EWP HT 3-3-3-3-3) So, we will try to buy near 1-st Strong Buyer's Support and take long position at the price 1871.00 (863 843 lots). The price target - 2089.00, our hedging risk T/P - 2035.00, S/L - 1870.00 (Of course S/L 1870.00 it's the approximately price, the accurate enter to the market, will produce by the detailed EWA/EWP on 1 minute chart, using Market Profile, Volume, Footprint, Depth of Market&Order Flow analysis) If you want to see the video of our trading, be active! Subscribe and vote for us!
Sincerely yours, Powerful Traders.
S&P Daily lobster cakeSo far as OIL is being under 40 $, I dont see much of an upside. I've been waiting for some magical spike on OIL to boost the markets. . If magic happens and we get it to the 40's , then we may start thinking about going into the new highs.
SP500 Q12016 outlookThe market has already calibrated mostly for the declining oil price. Energy sector not so big either in the S&P0.00% , accounting for 6,5% of the stocks . Stoch indicates oversold on daily chart . Marked has also re calibrated after the first initial rate hike and upcoming hikes is expected. Dollar might stay flat and rate hikes prolonged to avoid drop in oil price, which will further increase earnings. Last years Q1 have been quite strong, especially in 2012 after 2011 down trend. i am expecting an optimistic view of 2016 by investors and move towards 2100 again.
S&P 500 still in a triangle?Updating my count.
Let's see if institutionals confirm the triangle or if they prefer to manipulate price into some different direction...
S&P 500 offering a triangle for Christmas?Menu for Christmas:
- FED offers a rate hike;
- Santa Claus offers a little triangle.
S&P 500 so far so goodMaking some little adjustments and imagining a little bit further.
Well, so far so good as what my plan is concerned, let's see if it keeps that way (which I hope not, but I'm afraid it will).
S&P 500 Looking Bearish.............1. Bat Pattern completed on 3-Nov, Went Down After that but again bounced back.
2. Bearish Divergence in Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.
3. FED meeting in December, Consumer Confidence & GDP Data on 24-Nov Employment on 4 Dec, Stocks tend to fall 20 days Prior to FED meeting (Just an Observation).
Scenario 1 - S&P will hit 20 Degree Slope @ 2100 and will Return (20-27 degree slope and 50-59 degree slope are very common in trend).
Scenario 2 - S&P will Make New High of 2160 & will Crash.
SP500: Pullback/Consolidation is possibleAccording to our monthly analysis, on weekly time frame SPX, the price reached a strong resistance area, from here, we can expect a potential pullback around 2,010 area.
MONTHLY ANALYSIS
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SPY Triangule the spy if making a triangule. we have to keep looking through days to see if price break the support of the triangule or the resistance. I think is going up because is the market and EMA (200per) is acting as support in the 4h chart as you can see. Anyways, up or down its going to be a good gain. what do you think guys?
SP500 - NO SANTA CLAUS RALLY - CRASH IN 3 WEEKS - TRADING MAPBottom in place at 1820 for 2/3 weeks only. Then it can be challenged/breached.
Next few weeks mapping
28Oct Top: 1980/2000
31Oct Close: 1966 (small weekly shooting star)
Nov W1 Range: 1970/1890
Nov W2 Top: 1970
Nov W3 Dec W1/2 Crash: 1650 BUY! Potentially 2550 in early 2017.
Trade:
Short 1980/1990 Stop 2030
Buy 1850 Dec Puts.
Take Profit: 1650
Rational:
1 – Fundamental: The tepid growth can’t drive the rally further from these high grounds. A Decent Reset is in order.
2 – Fundamental: US QE Tapering, Nothing coming from ECB that the market liked.
3 – Technical: Rally 09 = Rally 11 in percentage ~100%
4 – Technical: Rally 11 Supporting line clearly broken below.
5 – Technical: Correcting 38% of Rally 11 is in order (That is 18% down from September top) – 1650 target
6 – Technical: The 125d EMA has just turned negative 10d ago, it has called for large corrections in the past. (good obervation from a tweet)
7 – Relative Considerations: Rates pointing lower, Credit unable to tighten further, Small cap (R2k) unable to perform for a while, DAX Close to bottom and unable to jump so far, Nasdaq/Apple Capped here..
7 – Game Theory: No better time for a crash than when the least Expected. We had 5 Santa Claus rally in a row. I bet this year is different.
Note: the correction in 2011 was also one that corrected 38% the previous move up from 2009 (in weekly closes).
Strong Advise:
If you are not short: DO NOT STAY LONG Nov W3 to Dec W2
Little to win, loads to lose...
SP500 Short Trade ParametersBottom in place at 1820 for 2/3 weeks only. Then it can be challenged/breached.
Next few weeks mapping
28Oct Top: 1980/2000
31Oct Close: 1966 (small weekly shooting star)
Nov W1 Range: 1970/1890
Nov W2 Top: 1970
Nov W3 Dec W1/2 Crash: 1650 BUY! Potentially 2550 in 2017.
Trade:
Short 1980/1990 Stop 2030
Buy 1850 Dec Puts.
Take Profit: 1650
Rational:
1 – Fundamental: The tepid growth can’t drive the rally further from these high grounds. A Decent Reset is in order.
2 – Fundamental: US QE Tapering, Nothing coming from ECB that the market liked.
3 – Technical: Rally 09 = Rally 11 in percentage ~100%
4 – Technical: Rally 11 Supporting line clearly broken below.
5 – Technical: Correcting 38% of Rally 11 is in order (That is 18% down from September top) – 1650 target
6 – Technical: The 125d EMA has just turned negative 10d ago, it has called for large corrections in the past.
7 – Relative Considerations: Rates pointing lower, Credit unable to tighten further, Small cap (R2k) unable to perform for a while, DAX Close to bottom and unable to jump so far, Nasdaq/Apple Capped here..
7 – Game Theory: No better time for a crash than when the least Expected. We had 5 Santa Claus rally in a row. I bet this year is different.
Note: the correction in 2011 was also one that corrected 38% the previous move up from 2009 (in weekly closes).
Strong Advise:
If you are not short: DO NOT STAY LONG Nov W3 to Dec W2
Little to win, loads to lose...
SP500 - Big Picture - Watch out - Dangerous emotional sequence- The trading dynamics since June 2014 display a market under constraint that can't move higher overall.
- It is only showing strength within explored price range.
- This last leg up reminds me of the Squeeze that we had end of June 2011, the crash occured 3 weeks later.
SP500 - Short 1950/1980 - 1750 possible and this could be TOP- SP500 has had a top every 7 years.
- Technically we are at similar postures than in 2000 or 2007.
- There is the possiblity of a E (we had ABCD so far over 14years).
- In October, SP500 will find it difficult to pass 1980:
* Supporting channels that require rentry
* Monthly amplitude was already 160pts when average over 10periods is normally 85 (top of the month was 1970)
